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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still