Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
